Suicide Bombing Approval Rates And Stupid Statistics

How stupid can statistics get? I just came across an article in the Financial Times (EU Muslims: seeking jihad or democracy?) with a chart by PEW on "Muslims views on suicide bombing". The answers given were:

- often/sometimes justified
- rarely/never justified
- don't know (sic!)

For me, the only answer possibilities acceptable would be:

- justified
- never justified

The PEW possibilities given are plain stupid. What's the difference between "sometimes justified" and "rarely justified"? And why these two answers are in different clusters?

Btw, as the chart shows, about 1/4 of Spanish muslims think suicide bombings are justified, whereas only about 10% of muslims in Germany seem to embrace suicide bombings. Scary enough.

Backbone? Values? - Nah, just listen to the pollsters.

I really like the ECONOMIST, and sometimes, I like articles of the Wall Street Journal as well. On one issue, they both get it totally wrong: illegal immigration. It starts with bashing those who oppose the illegality and those who oppose immigration as a whole alike, and goes on by mixing all kinds of arguments only to make the point that the U.S. needs immigrants.

There's one point that really worries me. Couple of weeks ago, the Economist warned:

In the long term, though, anti-immigrant hardliners are likely to suffer most. Latino voters are growing quickly in number (see article) and history suggests they will punish intolerant talk on immigration. Mark DiCamillo, a pollster, points out that California's Hispanics used to lean only slightly leftwards. In 1990, for example, they favoured Dianne Feinstein, the Democratic candidate for governor, over Pete Wilson, a Republican, by 53% to 47%. Then in 1994 came a ballot initiative, supported by Mr Wilson, which sought to make life much more difficult for illegal immigrants. Since then California's Latinos have favoured Democrats by a margin of between two-to-one and four-to-one.

Today, Kimberly A. Strassel from WSJ's editorial board follows:

[F]or every base Republican who is gratified by talk of ID cards and border patrols, there's an entire family of Hispanic immigrants who are absorbing the mean language of "sanctuary cities," "lawbreakers" and "deportation." Many of these folks are religious, entrepreneurial, and true believers in the American dream; as such, they're the biggest new voting potential the Republican Party has seen in ages. But a growing number, just like those Catholics of yore, are angered by the recent rhetoric and wondering why they should pull a lever for any party that would go out of its way to tag their community as the source of America's problems.

So, to cross the border illegally does not involve breaking the law? And the American dream means leaving your family, crossing the border illegally, working illegally, hoping everyone involved keeps a blind eye and finally the government changes things for the better by launching a big "naturalisation campaign" (or similar - I still prefer the term amnesty here.)? This is what the American Dream consists of? If so, I have to recalibrate my mind set. Hands down, most of the Hispanic immigrants are religious and entrepreneurial - but you can't call yourself neither if not obeying by the law in the first place.

But what bothers me most is this idea not to ask whether something is right or wrong, but whether a large group of voters will react irresponsible. If Hispanic voters are really going to turn their back on those politicians who opposed the latest attempt of immigration reform - well, then be it. But I really doubt that. Plus, I doubt that it's a good idea to give the signal: "Hey, just threaten me a little and I'm doing what you want!".

A final point. In another piece, the Economist ranted:

[T]he immigration problem remains unsolved. The border enforcement system remains overwhelmed. Hostility to migrants remains high, even though large parts of the economy depend on migrant labour. Some 12m or more people are left toiling in the shadows, just as before, with many more to follow. The abject failure of this bill suggests any future efforts at reform will be similarly mired.

All those problems exist. But none of them would have been targeted, let alone solved, by the immigration reform that failed in June. And if the perspective of getting legalization within a decade or so isn't a bold incentive for more illegal immigration, what is?

Stories from the 21st century (2): Web 2.0 Overkill

Some Web 2.0 tools are useful (like del.icio.us or diigo or wikipedia), but sometimes this whole hype leads to a huuuge waste of time:

300-page iPhone bill

Btw, I've really forgotten about the fact that telecommunication bills *could* be printed on paper. I received my last paper bill in ... 2005? Maybe.

Stories from the 21st century (1): Holy Innocents

In Bed with Hugo

Come again?

Chávez oil dollars buy bus tickets for London

Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s president, broke new ground in his campaign of global oil diplomacy on Monday when London mayor Ken Livingstone announced half-price bus travel for poor Londoners, funded with millions of Venezuelan oil dollars.

(...)

Mr Livingstone on Monday denied he had been seduced by Mr Chávez’s petro-diplomacy. “When someone turns up and says: ‘Do you want £14m?’ they get my attention,” Mr Livingstone told the Financial Times.

But he told reporters: “Frankly I’d rather be getting into bed with [Mr
Chávez] than, as the British government has been, getting into bed with [US president] George W. Bush.”

I wonder how long Berlin's mayor would resist such an offer. He recently declared Berlin "poor, but sexy". Then again, who would not trade sexiness for some millions?

Hilarious!

Video of the Month:

If Business Meetings Were Like Internet Comments


[via]

Sounds of a moribund hard disc

chrr....chrr...beep...chrrr...bip....bip....chrrr

Telling from the sounds my computer's hard disc is making right now, it is going to die in the very near future...

So, if this place will be silent again for a couple of days, this time, I might have a good excuse.

What kind of celebrity wedding is this?

My students in Nanning always used to say: "No, we don't like him! He is ugly!" They preferred to rant about Michael Jordan instead. Well, I like him, especially after reading this story about his wedding:

The three-hour ceremony was attended by over 70 family members and close friends while security guards patrolled the hotel to keep the Chinese and international media out.

Pardon me? Only 70 family members - and no media? Yonkers. What kind of celebrity wedding is this?

And he didn't even offer shark fin's soup. Perhaps because of his former team back in China...

Shorter!

That doesn't come exactly as a big surprise:

YOU ARE...

1.7 in. SHORTER THAN THE AVG. GERMAN

1.5 in. SHORTER THAN THE AVG. AMERICAN

I know. I KNOW! (Chagrin of my life. Okay, one of the chagrins.)

Thank you, Nancy!

Since he is so heavy on my mind these days I put the energy in this thread instead of sitting vigil. I hope you enjoy these pictures of my dear friend.

Barton Lee and me: A brief retrospective - The Sinatra Family Forum

R.I.P., Lee Hazlewood.

I'm 80% Capitalist!

You Are 80% Capitalist, 20% Socialist

In general, you support a free economy and business interests. You tend to think people should fend for themselves, even when times get tough. However, do think the government should help those who are truly in need.

Are You a Socialist or Capitalist?

Hmmm... sounds like Pareto distribution, no?

At times, men can be very stupid

I mean, really, really stupid (my links):

"Because you know how these things go," Shipman told detectives. "I said, 'Is there gonna be some crazy lady showing up at my door, trying to kill me?' He said, 'No ... she's not like that. She's fine with it. She's happy for me.'"

Stupidity, Gullibility...Whatever

That's so true (link added):

Does stupidity lead to gullibility? [F]or the most part, the movie depicts low-IQ people as very hard to trick because they scoff at whatever they do not understand.

and:

Bullies may be stupid, but it's nigh-impossible for a nerd to trick a bully into leaving him alone. The bully has a simple but powerful word that keeps the nerd from getting the upper hand: "Whatever."

What I Read Today, Plus Art Buchwald Stuff

Just to leave a trace and have something to remember 40 years from now:

Today, I skimmed over the Wikipedia article "Taboo food and drink", because it is the article of the day in the German wikipedia. Quite interesting.

Unfortunately, I then turned to the "Deaths in 2007" page, which is always a time killer. Speaking of time killers, I also read some articles about the UK Big Brother racism scandal, for example:

I'm not racist, says TV's Goody

Jade Goody, at the centre of an alleged race row on Celebrity Big Brother, has been evicted from the Channel 4 show.

Goody, 25, was up against Bollywood star Shilpa Shetty, who had been the target of the alleged abuse from Goody and others in the reality TV show.

(...)

And since I use the name Shilpa Shetty instead of "the Indian", I am apparantly no racist. I'm lucky.

To make my update concerning the BB ballyhoo perfect, I watched about three CNN vids. And being at CNN vids, I again watched the two vids about the passing of Art Buchwald, "Goodbye, Artie" by Kyra Phillips and "Buchwald: I made them laugh" (I presume, that those CNN links are not permanent; hence, a hopefully permanent youtube-link to another "dying is fun, actually" vid of Art Buchwald.)

Art Buchwald made it to German newspapers in late 2006 with his book "Too soon to say Goodbye": Der Mann, der einfach nicht sterben will, Die Welt, December 13, 2006 ("The man who simply doesn't want to die", in German.) You can find his final column, which he asked to distribute following his death here: Goodbye, My Friends, Washington Post, January 19, 2007.

Finally, I found a quote of Buchwald's over at IMDB which made me laugh:

I'm not a Republican, and I'm not a Democrat. I'm against whoever's in power. People talk about Nixon and I say, 'I worship the very quicksand he walks on.'

Humphrey Bogart died 50 years ago

How Humphrey got to be Bogie

Bogart became a legend near his death 50 years ago, when his acting was more closely aligned with his real-life personality.

By Richard Schickel

January 14, 2007

Humphrey Bogart died on Jan. 14, 1957, exactly 50 years ago. By all accounts, notably those of his friends, John Huston and Alistair Cooke, he died with great gallantry, hiding to the best of his ability the pain of the cancer that wracked and decimated him.

It worked this way: He would rest in his bedroom most of the day; then, in the late afternoon, he would be dressed in a blue blazer and ascot and transported, by wheelchair and elevator, to his living room. There, with cigarette in hand, martini at his side, he would await the arrival of friends. They brought industry gossip, in which he remained avidly interested; they went away inspired by his courage. His illness was never discussed. (read on this Los Angeles Times Op-Ed...)

When I was younger, I loved to watch film noirs with Bogart, Edward G. Robinson and Peter Lorre etc. But nowadays... I don't know... maybe it's simply too late in the evening when I happen to watch those old movies again. Anyway, here's a short sequence of the famous To Have and Have Not, giving evidence of the equally famous "onsreen chemistry" between Bogart and Lauren Bacall:

Radio Play About Bix Beiderbecke

Lots of cats tried to play like Bix; ain't none of them play like him yet.

Louis Armstrong

Yesterday, there was an radio play aired on German radio station Deutschlandfunk, called
Leben und Tod des Kornettisten Bix Beiderbecke aus Nordamerika (Life and Death of the cornett player Bix Beiderbecke from North America; link is in German), by Ror Wolf (link in German) from 1986, which was awarded with the Hörspielpreis der Kriegsblinden (radio play prize of the "Federation of the German War-Blinded"; link in German) the following year; which is the most important and prestigious prize for radio plays in Germany.

This radio play about Bix Beiderbecke brought one thing back into my mind as clear as possible, namely the importance of the internet for my little life. Because it was the third time that I listened to the play - first time was in 1986, second was in 2003 (I guess, because that was the 1ooth anniversary of Bix' birth) - and both times, I was left to my own devices concerning further information about Bix. Even in 2003, I didn't have the possibilities I have now, and in 1986, there was literally nothing I could do but wait until I happen to enter a record shop for the next time. But today, I just type in the name at wikipedia and youtube - and here we go:

Here you can find some Audio tapes of interviews conducted with people who knew Bix Beiderbecke. You can find "Bix Beiderbecke & His Rhythm Jugglers - Davenport Blues (January 26, 1925)" as mp3, too.

And finally, three videos from youtube. It's so fantastic to have all these sources, right? (Plus, I have a copy of the radio play in ogg format now!)

A tribute:



Wake Up Bix:



The Jean Goldkette Orchestra in 1926:

Syphilis: Comeback in China

Syphilis rates 'soaring in China'
By Jill McGivering
BBC News

(...)

The Lancet reports that China - which virtually eliminated syphilis in the 1960s and 70s - is now seeing the disease return with alarming intensity.

It reveals that reported rates have risen from 0.2 cases per 100,000 in 1993 to 5.7 cases per 100,000 in 2005.

Dramatic intervention is now needed, one of the report's authors says.

The study involved doctors from China's National Centre for STD Control in Nanjing and from the University of North Carolina's School of Medicine.

Dr Myron Cohen, a co-author of the report, described the spread of the disease as "fantastically rapid".

(Links added)

Further Sources:

Syphilis resurgent in China (Comment by David N Fisman, The Lancet)

China’s Health Calamity: Causes and Consequences
A Panel Discussion with Bates Gill, Myron Cohen and David M. Lampton
The Nixon Center, Washington, DC June 4, 2003


The Lancet Podcast - 13 January 2007 (mp3, 7.88Mb)

This week's podcast features an interview with Dr Miren Cohen from the University of North Carolina, one of the authors of a research article documenting a resurgence of syphilis in China over the past decade. A range of unique biological and social forces are responsible for the latest epidemic.

Syphilis rates skyrocket in China (New Scientist)

or, to put it bluntly: Sex Practice Changes in China Lead to Jump in Syphilis Cases.

The U.S. and Europe - Globalization meets cheese standards

Thomas P.M. Barnett, reviewing Roger Cohen's review of Überpower, has this to say:

Europe keeps expecting America to 'come home' and it just ain't gonna happen. We're living in the vast rule-set reset that is globalization's advance around the planet. Europe and Japan, the classic West other than America, wants largely to sit this process out, instead arguing over cheese standards and ag subsidies and UN Security Council resolutions.

(a 2006 draft leftover)

Is China going to dominate the 21st century?

From "Learning to Keep Learning" By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, The New York Times, December 13, 2006:

(...)

Sorry, but I am not ready to cede the 21st century to China yet.

No question, China has been able to command an impressive effort to end illiteracy, greatly increasing its number of high school grads and new universities. But I still believe it is very hard to produce a culture of innovation in a country that censors Google — which for me is a proxy for curtailing people’s ability to imagine and try anything they want. You can command K-12 education. But you can’t command innovation. Rigor and competence, without freedom, will take China only so far. China will have to find a way to loosen up, without losing control, if it wants to be a truly innovative nation.

(...)

Why should any employer anywhere in the world pay Americans to do highly skilled work — if other people, just as well educated, are available in less developed countries for half our wages?

If we can’t answer this question, in an age when more and more routine work can be digitized, automated or offshored, including white-collar work, “it is hard to see how, over time, we are going to be able to maintain our standard of living,” says Marc Tucker, who heads the National Center on Education and the Economy.

(...)

Tomorrow, Mr. Tucker’s organization is coming out with a report titled “Tough Choices or Tough Times,” which proposes a radical overhaul of the U.S. education system, with one goal in mind: producing more workers — from the U.P.S. driver to the software engineer — who can think creatively.

(...)

Halloween in Beijing

This comment by E.M. Cuneo reminds me of christmas in Nanning:

(...) My husband and I, along with our 2 toddlers, have been spending the fall in Beijing. I was overjoyed when I realized that we’d miss Halloween in New York — as it is, by far, the most overblown, overcommercialized and ridiculous event of the year, imho. We get here and guess what? We get invited to 4 halloween parties by people who don’t know what halloween is, yet want to impress the ex-pat community. "Ohh, darn," I said. "I think the kids are coming down with Typhoid, maybe next year." (...)

The Re-Engagement of the American People

Happy or suicidal with tonight's results, something colossal and profoundly important has happened in the United States beginning in 2000 — the re-engagement of the American people with politics. We have had four enormously consequential elections in a row now in which voters have cast their ballots in numbers that we were told we'd never see in our lifetimes. (...)

writes John Podhoretz. Glenn Reynolds calls that a good observation.

So true. Greetings from politically more and more dis-engaging Germany.

I put together some quotes concerning electronic voting machines over at B.L.O.G. The post is almost completely in English, including the following quote and youtube link:

Now that Election Day is over and done, and you're celebrating or bemoaning the win or loss of your favorite corrupt official, kick back with a drink or your morning coffee and watch this video. (...)

In the following video you can watch Prof. Edward W. Felten and "the two kids from Princeton who actually did this work" on (FOX News) air:



Update

Joerg of Atlantic Review has a first reaction from a German official and praises the direct democracy in the US: US Election Results, German Prejudices and Direct Democracy